The Crystal Ball Week 16

Originally Posted on Quick Thoughts on December 21, 2006.


Merry Christmas to one and all! It is that time of the year, when friends and family come together for merriment and joy. I send out my best Christmas wishes to all of you, and a Happy Hanukah and Happy Kwanza as well. Here is hoping all of your holiday wishes come true!

WOW! Now that was a game! It took a while, but Pittsburgh finally looks like the defending Super Bowl champions. I have been waiting all season for a complete game against a good team like that. We had one against Kansas City, and almost one against Atlanta, but this was a great one, especially since Carolina was a preseason Super Bowl pick. I could not have been more thrilled by the overall play of the offense and the defense.

Willie Parker had an excellent day running, notching his first road 100 yard game of the season in front of friends and family from the Carolina area. We all know now about how he was barely used in college, and if I was a North Carolina fan, I have to ask how dumb their coaches must be after watching Parker torch NFL defenses each week. He already has more yards this season than last, and has a shot of hitting 1500 for the season. And remember, this is only his third year. Imagine how good he will be when he hits his prime. I personally cannot wait.

Also, great play by free safety Anthony Smith. Fantastic defense and two picks show that the young rookie is starting to get the system. No, like most I did not care for the show boating, and he should have kept running after the interception, but he is going to be great. He is a rookie and will settle down, I’m sure LeBeau and Cowher will make sure of that, since both had a few words with him after the pick. But I am too busy right now imagining the defensive backfield of him and Polamalu. That backfield with McFadden, Taylor, Clark, Carter, Logan and Townsend will give offenses fits for years to come. I am giddy with excitement.

Plus, a thrilling punt return by Santonio Holmes really capped the day. Yes, he lost the ball on the attempt before, but he completely made up for it with that scintillating run. He seems to be starting to get things as well. If he could just improve his catching skills and ability to hold onto the ball, he will be stellar.

And with the surprise of the game, I also saw a flash of last year with an excellent receiver pass by Cedrick Wilson. I am glad to see we have that back in the bag of tricks. Shame it took us so long to break that one out again.

It looks, and maybe I am just being overly optimistic, that this team has finally realized that even though they lost some key people, they can still win games, are still a good team and have others that can step up into those positions and roles. I couldn’t be happier about that. The only problem I have with it is that they took this long for them to figure that out. I wish I could experience a Super Bowl win, the party must be so good for the hangover to last until November.

Now, thanks to their victory, and Tennessee’s and Cincinnati’s losses, the faint playoff hopes of the men from the Steel City remain alive, if for just another week. I know it is still beyond a long shot, with 4 teams at 8-6 and 4, including Pittsburgh, at 7-7 fighting for two wild card spots. It will take two wins and about a super tanker full of luck, but I think it might be possible. But they must win, and this sets up a stellar showdown against Baltimore at home next week, and I will have much more on this later.

Another interesting topic came up for discussion again in Steeler Nation, with Coach Cowher discussing publicly his future in coaching and with the team. The article, found in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, was very interesting, and telling. Throughout the press conference, Cowher shot down many of the perceived ideas of reasons why he is contemplating his future. He stated that he is not burned out or tired of coaching, nor is watching his daughters play basketball and begin their lives a part of his decision. I had always thought that family was a big part of it, and perhaps even a little bit of burn out. The telling part was when someone brought up money and its part in the decision; he stated that subject would not be broached. What the article told me were two things. One, he is unsure of whether he wants to coach or not, and it is not about family or fatigue, but about desire. I am not surprised by this, since most of the season he has looked rather uninspired overall. Plus, he even acknowledged in the interview he contemplated retiring after last season. And two, it is about money. I do not blame him entirely there. He is one of the elder statesmen of coaches in the league. He has been the face of the team for 15 years now, and has brought an extended period of success and stability to the franchise. Plus, he is only 49 years old, and could conceivably coach for a long time to come. And in some circles, it is thought he is just reaching his coaching prime. All of these are valid points, and in a profession where turnover and job instability are common, it is hard to blame him to want a big raise, especially after leading the team to a Super Bowl win, and having a squad that could potentially win a few more. However, it is still disappointing when you know that it is not about loyalty or desire or team and that it boils down to money. Yes, in the world we live in, this should be far from a surprise, but it still lets you down. You always hope one person will not make it about the money, but greed can corrupt even the best of people and intentions. But before he makes this into a money fight where sides could get hurt and people could walk away with irreparably damaged feelings and relationships, I would like to remind the coach of a few things. This is a team that is notorious for not overpaying for a product. It has been what has helped keep them competitive both on and off the field for a long time. They have had the utmost confidence in you since the day you were hired and never wavered that you were the coach and the one in charge. When it came down to you and Tom Donahoe, they went with you. When you had a few losing seasons, they never debated and showed their faith by re-signing you. You have had an unparalleled level of job security and ownership confidence that almost every other coach in the league would give almost anything to have. Keep this in mind when the contract talks begin again after the season. Whatever Cowher decides for his future, I wish him well and hope he makes the right decisions for both himself and his family, since at the end of the day those are the most important things in life. I just hope money does not ruin something that has been good for both him and the Steelers.

With the short weeks that have occurred during this part of the season due to the Thursday night game, I find I miss a few things with having to post so early each week. Here are a couple of things I missed last week that I would like to bring up.

First was the hilarious press conference with Tom Brady, where he went off on the media regarding the Dolphins, the rumors of them learning his cadence from procured tapes and getting the best of him in a 21-0 shut out. Watching Tom totally lose his cool was entertaining as all get out. You know I love anything that shows another chink in not just the Patriot armor, but also the armor of the great Tom Brady. Usually he plays things as cool as a cucumber, but he was so discombobulated about the loss, and the thought that he was bested by such an inadequate team had him completely unraveled. First Tom, they did best you, you had one of the worst games as a pro that day, so nut up and accept it. Second, if they did figure out your cadence by watching game tape and exploited it, good for them. Once again, nut up and overcome this. You are a Super Bowl champion, find a way to overcome. And third, you know the comparisons between him and Joe Montana have been going on for a few years now, and there are valid points to them. But I do not think it is just me when I say, I don’t think I would see Joe lashing out at the media after having a bad game like that. They did not call him Joe Cool for nothing. Tom, perhaps you need to take a few more lessons yet from Joe.

Second, I found this piece in an article in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette on 12-14.

“One thing Parker and guard Alan Faneca agreed on is the need for another halfback to complement him next season, preferably a bulldozer who can ram into a pile and move it. He would not have to weigh as much as Jerome Bettis, but must have that kind of running style.
It has been a topic of discussion for much of the season as Parker carried 72.7 percent of the time with 264 runs.

"I think that would be great, another back, a 1-2 punch," Parker said. "I think that would be great. And the way we run the ball, and the way we want to run the ball, I think that would be a great decision ...

"Me and Jerome, we did a phenomenal job last year, and I thought that's how we were going to be this year, but we didn't go that way."

It didn't go that way because Duce Staley, cut last week, was supposed to be that man but was judged not capable by the end of training camp and was inactive for 11 of his 12 games.” ”

Not to say I told you so but I told you so, specifically back in week 13. I feel very strongly about having a change up back to spell Parker and after reading this, I feel validated. If not only Parker, but also Faneca and others see this, I feel as though I may know a couple of things about this game we call football. Now, if only I could get a job in the NFL, I may be able to use this power for good.

Ok, enough of the past, onto the fun from last week in the NFL.

Tony Romo, welcome to the NFL. He had an excellent rebound week after the New Orleans trouncing, taking care of business in Atlanta. He has the poise, and short memory, needed to be a successful quarterback in the NFL. Congratulations Cowboy fans, you have a good one in Romo.

I said it before, and I will say it again. Who wants to play the Tennessee Titans right now? Even on a day where their offense could do nothing, Vince Young looked mortal, and they had less than 100 yards of offense all day, their defense steps up and puts in three scores that wins them the game. The whole team is playing with fire as a unit, the kind of team that can turn playoff dreams into nightmares. If I were a team on the playoff bubble, I would be afraid of playing the Titans. And even scarier, the Titans have played themselves right into the playoff picture. How much you want to bet they wrap up 9-7 with a chance for a wild card spot right until the end of the last day of the season? I am not taking that bet.

The referees in the Philadelphia/New York game were so painfully homers, it was not even funny. Philly won the game despite the referees. The taunting call on Jeff Garcia was ridiculous. My God, these are grown men, they cannot take a little name calling? What do you think goes on out on that field, a recipe exchange? The defensive holding penalty on Philly at the end zone was beyond stupid, especially since Shockey was holding the defender as well. The referees were calling every possible Philadelphia infraction, which I would not have a problem with, except they were conveniently ignoring the blatant Giant ones. I personally saw Garcia hit well after the pass, and it was never called. Troy Aikman, in the booth, even pointed it out once, and still there was no call. Finally, near the end of the game they finally had to acknowledge roughing the passer, but it was after Garcia threw a touchdown pass, so the penalty meant nothing. The referees are supposed to be impartial, but in this game they were clearly swayed by the home crowd. I have seen this crew work before, and they have a terrible habit of working against the away teams in games. NFL, I’m begging you, do something about this before your referee crews are as bad as the ones in the NBA.

Now, despite the issues with the officiating, the game was an exciting nail biter until the fantastic interception and return that sealed the game. Back and forth they went all afternoon, two great combatants striving for the playoffs and division supremacy. But fortune always favors the bold and Philadelphia was bold from the start. On fourth and goal with the distance barely a foot, the Eagles sent Brian Westbrook over the top for the touchdown. They did not play scared, they did not play for a field goal; they played to win. It showed on that play, and in the final box score. And because of this type of play, Philadelphia now holds their playoff fate in their hands and is set up for a great match up next week against Dallas on Christmas Day. Trust me there will definitely be more on this later.

What is going on with Da Bears defense? For the second straight week, they gave up a ton of points and this time it almost cost them the game. Tampa Bay came back from a huge deficit to send the game into overtime. Did the D decide to take the second half off, just to rest up early for the playoffs? I know Da Bears clinched home field throughout the playoffs, but there have been more than a few kinks in their armor as of late. Unless they are holding back, I am feeling less and less confident about their playoff chances. Sorry Ditka, but I know you see them too.

The Bengals will always be the Bungles, and from now on here, I will call them nothing but the Bungles. They honked a winnable game against the Colts on Monday Night, when their post season hopes hinged on a win. After the game, Marvin Lewis blamed the loss on dropped passes, saying these killed the offense and caused them to fall out of rhythm. I am going to say it, and I am sure I will not be the only one, but the reason they lost that game is not because of dropped passes, but because of poor coaching. They came into the game with a poor plan. They did nothing to pressure Peyton Manning, and everyone knows if you get in Manning’s face, he falls to pieces and the powerful Colt offense derails. When this happens, the onus to win the game falls upon their defense, and everyone knows they cannot toe the line to win games for Indianapolis. This was one of the major keys to Pittsburgh’s playoff win in Indianapolis last season. The other poor plan was they tried to copy Jacksonville and run all over the weak Colts defense. Not a bad plan if you execute correctly, which they did not. Plus, there were two distinct differences in how Jacksonville executed this plan and how Cincinnati executed it. First, the Jaguars have two good backs, and that helps, while the Bungles only have one. Second, they put pressure on Peyton, which helped loosen things up for the offense, which the Bungles did not. Once Cincinnati found out their running game was not working, did they adjust and unleash Carson Palmer? No, they ran the ball again and again and again to no avail. And the key poor coaching moment came at the beginning of the fourth quarter. The Bungles had the ball on a 4th and goal with 3 yards to go. They are down 18 points and need to score right away to have any chance. What did they do? They trotted in the field goal unit, took the three points and never scored again. When you are down big with little time left in the game, you need a touchdown. Your defense has obviously not been playing their best game, and they need scoring help. Plus, the whole team could use the lift of getting a touchdown to reinvigorate them. By kicking that field goal, Marvin Lewis showed the entire team that he had given up, and just was hoping that the score did not look like too big of a blow out. You play to win the game, not to lessen the margin of defeat. Marvin Lewis should take a few lessons from Andy Reid in situations like this. I used to like Marvin Lewis and what he had done for Cincinnati, but with the growing issues of the character on most of the team and the obvious choking in big games, I am beginning to see that he is little more than a mediocre coach whose team wins despite of him, like most of the teams in the league. Because of this chicken scratch type of coaching, this Bungle team will not go to the playoffs. If this is how they will operate, they will probably win in Denver next week in a bounce back game against a weakened opponent, but then they will get killed against Pittsburgh, and their season will end right there, on their own field, at the hands of the Steelers just like last year. Mark it, since this is what will happen.

This week, Terrell Owens is an idiot. Now, he could conceivably win this every week as far as I am concerned, but he particularly stood out this week. He still leads the league in drops, and he did not even have 100 yards receiving, but he had two touchdown catches, and everyone says he had a great game. Please. It is more than painfully obvious that the Cowboys prefer to run their offense with the threat of TO as opposed to running it through TO. He is more beneficial to them as a distraction and a decoy than actually doing anything. He knows it too, which is why he runs his mouth, so he can at least have people talking about him. And for the purely idiotic part of his week, he spits in DeAngelo Hall’s face, bringing the ire of Hall, the Falcons, countless fans and Roger Goodell, who slapped Owens with a $35,000 fine for the incident. After the game, during an interview with the NFL Network crew, even hall of fame hot dogger/self promoter Deion Sanders was incredulous about Owens’s actions, being a voice of reason regarding the incident, schooling Owens and chastising him for his behavior. You know you have gone way too far when Sanders takes issue with your behavior. Before he goes completely wacko, I woud like to make a suggestion for TO’s next book, Little T Learns to Act Like A Human Being. Now, please, let us all start ignoring him until he goes away.

This week I had one of those stellar weeks where almost all of my long shot picks panned out. Check it.

Last Week: 12-4
Season to Date: 131-93

Oddly enough, even after such a fantastic performance, I came in second again in the poll. That’s two weeks in a row in second. Can I make a push for a winning week? Who knows? I may be a little distracted in my picks, since I am giddy with excitement. Yes, I will be in Pittsburgh on Sunday to catch the Steelers/Ravens collision. Pittsburgh has their faint playoff hopes on the line, and a massive payback game after their dismantling in Baltimore a few weeks back. Ok, I know that there is a very real possibility they could get creamed again. I do not believe it, but I recognize the fact. It really does not matter to me. I am so excited to see a game in Heinz Field; I am bouncing off the walls. We will hit the tailgates, walk around the whole stadium, I’m going to get a Primanti Brothers sandwich, yum, and we’re going to tour the Great Hall where all the past great Steeler moments are on display. And for the first time ever, I will see all of Pittsburgh’s Super Bowl trophies. Oh, I’m getting giddy all over again. Ok, before I go too nuts, let’s get to this week.


Thursday

Minnesota at Green Bay

Could this be Brett Favre’s last game in Lambeau? With the way the NFL Network is plugging it, you would think it was. All the advertising is geared toward the possibility that this will be the last time Favre takes the field in Lambeau. You know, with the way he’s playing and the way the team is starting to come together, I doubt it. I had been referring to this season as the Favre Farewell Tour, but now I am not so sure. I bet he suits up again next year. The real story should be that both of these teams, despite their 6-8 records, are still in the playoff hunt in the NFC. Personally, I think Green Bay has a better chance, especially since Minnesota is falling apart at a rapid pace. Brad Childress still has a lot of work there to bring glory back to the Vikings.

Green Bay over Minnesota


Saturday

Kansas City at Oakland

Well, KC now has to fight like banshees to keep even their ridiculously slim playoff hopes alive. Considering they are in the glut of 7-7 teams, and Pittsburgh holds a tie breaker over them, I do not see them honoring Lamar Hunt with an inspired playoff run. I do see them, however, honoring him with a pasting of Oakland, who is just trying to get out of 2006 at this point.

Kansas City over Oakland


Sunday Christmas Eve

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Oh man, oh man oh man is this going to be a good game! Well, that and it will be a great time! I seriously cannot wait. I am as excited about this as I am about Christmas. This is like an early present, getting to be around like minded Steeler nuts in Heinz Field with everything on the line. Now if Santa could just help out a bit with a nice win. I have a feeling the fat man will come through for me.

Pittsburgh over Baltimore


Carolina at Atlanta

Two crappy teams going in crappy directions is what this game is all about. Atlanta still has some playoff hopes, and I suppose Carolina does too. But Atlanta has a better inside track toward grabbing a spot. Plus, Carolina last week looked like they had just given up. I cannot feel confident about picking a team like that, even when they are playing the erratic Falcons and the inconsistent Vick.

Atlanta over Carolina


Chicago at Detroit

I am starting to worry a bit about Da Bears. Sure, they got it done last week, but giving up a 21 point lead and having a crappy team force overtime, in your own stadium, does not bode well for future success. Then again, perhaps they took a few plays off, knowing they had everything locked up. So will they do the same this week? It is possible, I bet they even rest some of the starters since they have home field locked up as well. But despite those things, I still do not see them losing to Detroit, the Lions just suck too bad.

Chicago over Detroit


Indianapolis at Houston

Well, it seems as though Indianapolis and their defense in particular, has some life left in them after all. With that nice win over Cincinnati, they have given themselves an inside track toward a first round bye. Not that it has helped in the past, but they do have a few injuries to overcome. I think after sitting starters for so long last year, Tony will want to keep his first team in and fresh as long as safely possible this year. In this game, they’ll probably be sipping Gatorade by the third quarter.

Indianapolis over Houston


New England at Jacksonville

So Jacksonville could not even beat Tennessee when Vince Young had the worst game of his young career. That does not sound like a playoff team to me. Even worse, Fred Taylor had his annual hamstring injury. I know he says it is just tweaked, and he did not pull it. But you know he will be either tentative, fearing a pull, or will go overboard and really pull it, ending his season. Either way, I do not like their chances. New England took out their frustrations on Houston last week, and since they still want to win their division and have an outside chance at a first round bye, you know they will be coming hard, doubly so to show they can win in Florida.

New England over Jacksonville


New Orleans at N.Y. Giants

Ok, so the Redskins team that wins games showed up last week, go figure. I know I cannot. I still think New Orleans will win at least one playoff game, if Payton can remember to keep Brees passing and then hit them with Deuce. They still have seeding to fight for, and they will be fighting. The Giants, on the other hand, well, they could have won against Philly, but the Eagles wanted it more, plain and simple. Plus, they looked erratic and Eli seems to be continuing his downward slide to mediocrity. This week, any hopes for the post season die a sad death on the Meadowlands turf.

New Orleans over N.Y. Giants


Tampa Bay at Cleveland

Now here is an interesting game, even if it is two crappy teams. Tampa Bay played tough against Chicago last week, almost pulling off a huge upset. Cleveland played tough against Baltimore, staying with the Ravens until late in the game when Baltimore pulled away. Yes they both lost, but they also showed something both have rarely showed this season, some life. So who to go with? I thought this was a hard one until I realized one simple fact; the AFC is a much better conference than the NFC right now. And with that in mind, the pick became clear.

Cleveland over Tampa Bay


Tennessee at Buffalo

Ok, who would have thought this, Tennessee and Buffalo near the end of the season, with both teams fighting for a chance at a playoff spot? I certainly did not, and I doubt anyone except for the most diehard of Bills and Titans fans would have either. But here they are, and the winner stays in contention, possibly, and the loser plans on wrapping up the season next week. So who to go with? I’m riding that Vince Young train until it derails.

Tennessee over Buffalo


Washington at St. Louis

Ugh, this is a true crap fest. Since I have made a commitment to pick every game this season, minus the pre season of course, I might as well get this one over with. I have not one interesting thought about this game other than it will come to an end at some point, and then the good people of St. Louis can enjoy their Christmas Eve.

St. Louis over Washington


Arizona at San Francisco

Another crapfest, but this one comes with an interesting twist. Thanks to two wins over Seattle, San Francisco has a chance to actually win the NFC West. Now who would have thought that? This has to be a really weird season in the NFL. I blame myself, since this is the first season I have done a column. Anyway, with something like a division crown to play for, it seems as though the 49ers will come out hard. Arizona, well, they are just waiting for the off season where they hope to get an offensive line and a better coach.

San Francisco over Arizona


Cincinnati at Denver

Hey, Bungles, thanks for the shaft on Monday, you jerks. What was I thinking picking them anyway? Good gravy. Well, call me a glutton for punishment, because I am about to do it again. Yes, Cutler looked good last week, but he looked good against Arizona. Not like the Bungles can stop a big passer, though. Honestly, the only reason for this is I need Denver to lose and lose fast. Pittsburgh can handle Cincinnati next week.

Cincinnati over Denver


San Diego at Seattle

Oh please, like there is anything worth watching during this game. Even on cruise control, as long as Shottenheimer does not interfere, the Chargers can easily handle the Seahawks. The Hawks are in a bit of desperation mode, but I doubt it will make much of a difference.

San Diego over Seattle


Monday Christmas

Philadelphia at Dallas

This could very well be the game of the week. Dallas is working to secure not only a playoff spot, but also the division. Philadelphia has given themselves the inside track on a playoff spot and with a win this week and next, could take the division outright. That is a huge game for both teams. Philly won the previous meeting, but were not as banged up as they are now. Dallas did lose before, but they were not playing Romo. Personally, I want Philly to win, I really do. However, just looking objectively at it, I think Dallas has just a little bit more than the Eagles do. I hate to do it, but I must. And if the Eagles prove me wrong, I will happily accept the loss.

Dallas over Philadelphia


N.Y. Jets at Miami

Ok, the Jets have positioned themselves nicely for a playoff spot, yet I still have to wonder if anyone will watch this game. It is the second one of the day, and most households, if they tune into one, will put the kibosh on a second game. And if anyone had to pick between the two, this one would not get picked. Since the Jets have a tendency to lose odd games, and Miami is doing its meaningless December push, last week not withstanding because a win there could have pushed them into even remote contention, I’m going Dolphins at home.

Miami over N.Y. Jets