The Crystal Ball Week 4

Originally Posted on Quick Thoughts on September 29,2006.

Have you ever heard of the saying, no matter how bad things look, they can always be worse? Well, that seemed to be last weekend. I knew going into the weekend that I would either look like a genius, or a complete fool. And for about an hour early Sunday afternoon, I looked like the former. After that, it became painfully obvious what the real answer was the latter. Now, I know all that any given Sunday stuff, I said it myself last week, so I am not too concerned. A few good weeks strung together, boom I am right back in the thick of things. After all, this is only week 4 of a 17 week season. And a few of the games could have gone either way, and if they did, I would have been 11 and 3. Unfortunately, they did not go my way and a few more almost went against me as well. But there were more than a few revelations that came out the weekend, besides the fact that I am a complete fool and may not know what I am doing. Let’s take a look.

Revelation: The Saints are actually new! - The Saints came marching home, right over top of Atlanta and doing their best General Sherman impression the entire way. Wow, what a stellar performance. After seeing their overall play on Monday night, color me impressed. Balanced offensive attack coupled with a tenacious defense and an opportunistic special teams unit and suddenly the Saints look like a real team. Everyone kept talking about Atlanta’s much vaunted running attack, and the Saints took that right out of the equation and forced Michael Vick to put the game on his shoulders, where everyone knows is a bad place to expect a win from the Falcons. Excellent game plan, execution and spirit from the Saints. I had my reservations on how improved they may actually be, seeing as they have yet to play someone. Now, unless Atlanta is overrated (possible but doubtful), their previous two opponents were really crappy (likely) or New Orleans was running on pure emotion (also possible), it seems like they might actually have a semblance of a team in New Orleans. And thank goodness, because they desperately need one. My heart said pick the Saints, my head said the Falcons. The morale of the story? Always listen to your heart, it knows best.

Revelation: One and a half quarters of good football does not make up for three bad ones. – Yeah, yeah, I got all wrapped up in that Eli Manning has come of age crap just like everyone else. What I forgot, and most everyone else too, was for the first three quarters against Philly, he stunk worse than a skunk in an outhouse. If I had paid attention to that, well, I would have wised up and took the logical choice, which was Seattle. Nope, I did not. And before I knew it, it was 35-3, and was I ever chagrined. He had a great quarter, but overall he was still the same inconsistent, shaky quarterback he has shown thus far in his career. No more benefit of the doubt for him or the Giants. Shockey was right, they were outplayed and out coached, and badly.

Revelation: One defense is tougher than we thought, and the other offense still stinks. – The 3-0 Ravens had to kick a 52 yard field goal in the waning seconds to beat the Browns. I know I said the Browns could pull off the upset, and very nearly did. Now, it is looking to me that their defense is far stouter than anyone could have thought, and if their offense could generate a few more points, they might be a team. And is it just me, or do the Ravens look like the same old Ravens on offense? You too? Yeah, that’s what I thought as well. Poor running, bad passing and terrible play calls. It will catch up with them, let’s say, this week.

Revelation: Better start ringing out those road jerseys for any leftover residual luck. – Three weeks in and the Super Bowl champions are 1-2, two games behind in the division, stuck in third and have to travel to San Diego next week to face the potentially 3-0 Chargers in primetime. They got to the desperation point a lot faster this season didn’t they? Well, they had best start playing like each game is a season ender. They looked undisciplined, lackadaisical and outclassed last week when it counted most. That game was one they should have won, and for large chunks of it they dominated the Bengals. But they did not put them away, and let Cincy hang around until it bit them in the ass and hard. I don’t know where the lack of concentration is coming from, but a few thoughts. Did having Tommy Maddox around as a mentor really make that much of a difference in Ben’s game, or is the effects of three surgeries in 10 months and the whirlwind of his first two seasons starting to catch up with him? Is the possible retirement of Cowher becoming a clubhouse distraction? Is the defense feeling the pressure of having to pick up the slack left by the offense? The loss of Randle El is showing up more on both the return game and in the passing game, with every defense keying on Ward and no one stepping up as a go to guy on returns. Will they be able to find a way around these issues? Do they have a real option for a short yardage back, since Staley seems to be nothing more than a sideline mascot and Davenport has yet to see the field? If they do not, will Willie Parker be able to handle a season of pounding the ball up the middle and 30 carries a game? It’s a long season, and we are only three games into it, but these are some big questions that had best get answered quickly if Pittsburgh wishes to be anything more than a one bowl wonder.

Revelation: Home is no longer where the heart is. – Much has been made of the underdog and away teams this year, and with good reason. Last week alone, of the 14 contests played on Sunday and Monday night, 10 teams won away from their stadium. Only 4 home teams managed to win in front of their faithful fans. And at least one of those was in serious doubt. Is it possible Pittsburgh’s historic march on the road through the playoffs last year made every other team go, wait, we can win on the road too! Home field advantage, at least thus far this season, seems to have gone the way of the single bar facemask.

Revelation: One and a half quarters of bad football does not color the rest of the season. – Yeah, the Eagles collapsed against the Giants, but they obviously moved past it quickly with a resounding victory over the 49ers. Every team can have some bad moments from game to game. Every team has a bunch of bad things happen and loses a game. A good team moves past it quickly.

Revelation: Veteran leadership and skills really do mean something after all. – Brady has no one to throw to, and their kicker cannot seem to get the ball past the line of scrimmage. In three games, he already has as many blocked kicks as Adam Vinatieri had in 10 years. Their defense looks all over the place, and not able to stop passing or really stuff the run. The time may have come where letting go of all those veterans and leaders has caught up to them. They did not look like the Patriot juggernaut of only two years ago. They looked like a team of a few veterans and a bunch of role players that are not sure of their role. And Brady looks sick of throwing till his arm falls off with very little to show for it. I would have been less surprised if he had been the one that threw up during the game. He knows how to win, and if things keep going the way they have, it looks like he is going to learn how to lose as well.

Revelation: Age is a relative number. – Before last week, Brett Favre should have retired two years ago and Mark Brunell was holding up the coronation of Jason Campbell. They were both too old and lost too much to be effective anymore. Last week, both dug down and found that extra something, showing that they still have a little magic left. It may have only been for one week, Brett still has a long season with a lot of young teammates, and Brunell may not be able to hold off the calls for Campbell forever, but it was nice to see these two fling the ball around and look like great quarterbacks once again. And who knows, maybe they found a fountain of youth. It would seem as though Morten Anderson has. He managed to provide Atlanta with their only points. Not bad for a 46 year old gentleman. Good luck with your season Morten, and to Brett and Mark, show these petulant youngsters how it’s really done. No, seriously, Brett, come to Pittsburgh and give Ben a few pointers. I think he forgot some stuff over the summer. You can stop by on your way to Philadelphia. It’s on the way, no big deal.

So after looking over my debacle from last week, I am not sure if I am thinking too much about each pick, or not enough. It may be too much, since I spent a lot of time on the Colts/Jaguars match up when I KNOW I should have gone with Manning in the RCA dome. He does not need a running game, he likes to pass, and is real good at it, in case anyone did not realize it. I must have had a gas leak around me when I thought that one out. And I spent way too much time on the Washington/Houston game as well. Never, never, never pick Houston, no matter where they are playing, unless it is against Tennessee or Oakland! Seriously, I must have fallen on my head or something. You know this is not a winning organization. They passed up Reggie Bush! They obviously do not think things out clearly! Well, neither do I, so I guess we are even. This week, no agonizing over picks, no major thought processes, no scanning for buried nuggets. I know better from first impressions. I knew the Chiefs were going to struggle right away, and I stuck with it. Now they are 0-2 and up against it early. See? That gut thing might be worth something. So this week, let’s listen to our guts. Less thinking, more feeling. Hey, its football, it’s all about guts anyway! Now, if I have another horrible week, I can just blame it on not having thought it through properly. Hmmmm, maybe I should look into a career in politics.

This week’s bye teams are Denver, N.Y. Giants, Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. Denver is going in after a good win over New England Sunday night, probably glad for the win, and the ability to allow the calls for Cutler to die down and let Plummer be their quarterback. Remember, experience counts. The Giants I am sure are glad for the bye, to let everyone in the locker room cool off and regroup for the tough games that follow this week. Plus, the week off will help put the shellacking they took in Seattle out of their minds. Tampa Bay is still reeling, and probably wishes they had two bye weeks. Chris Simms out with a ruptured spleen? How hard did he get hit? If that is not a sign of problems with protection, I do not know what is. Here is to hoping he has a speedy, and full, recovery. Watch as Gruden spends the week off looking for a veteran QB in the classifieds and a fountain of youth for his defense. You can gauge his desperation on whether or not he calls Vinnie Testaverde. And Pittsburgh, well, I do not know what to say. Here is what they better do on their off week. Get their offense in sync. Roethlisberger better spend almost the entire time practicing throws to all his receivers while they practice running their routes. Cowher better practice and then double check his decision making, including leaving Heath Miller off the field for most of the fourth quarter. Colclough had best be practicing fielding kicks of every kind. Everyone had better be reading the rule books, and highlighting sections regarding excessive celebration and unsportsmanlike conduct. Everyone had also better work on their overall execution, composure and ability to hold onto the damn ball. This is no longer the preseason boys; this is the real thing, these games count. Every receiver but Hines had better find a way to make themselves a viable threat on the field, and Hines needs to work on his separation and hamstring. And Troy had best get that shoulder into some kind of shape where he can lay a hit on someone. Because next week, they go to San Diego for a big Sunday night showdown, and I will be sitting 4 rows behind the Steelers bench. And I will tell you now, if they do not play better than they have the past two weeks, I will be one very unhappy Pittsburgh fan. Mainly because I know all hope of the Super Bowl will be gone. Not that they cannot overcome a 1-3 start, but every time I have seen them play and win in San Diego, they won the Super Bowl the same year. Ok, so that only happened once, last year, but I would like it to be a trend that continues.

One other note before the good stuff. No TO discussion here. I could go into all the reasons why and why not, but it is this simple. I refuse to add to the miles of print that are already dedicated to him, especially since most of us could care less. These few sentences are already too much. Enough.

Now, for the weekly update. I shudder to even show this.

Last Week: 6-8
Season to Date: 25-21

Ok, so the overall record is still a winner. But at the rate I am going, it looks that by week 7, I will actually go 0-14. If that happens, at least I know by then each week will get better than the last. Of course, with the way I’m picking, I’ll manage to lose the bye weeks too. I do not feel as bad about it after looking at how some of the experts did last week with their picks. Many were either barely above 500 or below it as well. Not many had a stellar week, either. Thank goodness I do not have any money riding on this. Oh wait, I do. Blast! Oh well. Like they said in that one episode of the Simpson’s, when you are right 52% of the time, you are wrong 48%. Now, take a look at these picks while I try to find Lisa Simpson’s phone number……


Arizona at Atlanta

Atlanta is at home, and looking for revenge over getting embarrassed on Monday night. Arizona is feeling gutted after losing a game at home they had won on a bad fumble. Initial reports were that they had had enough and were starting Matt Leinart. Apparently, that was an erroneous report and they are going to stick with Sure Hands Warner. Good call. Almost as good as ignoring any upgrades on the offensive line. I hope Edge got a lot of guaranteed money in that contract. Possible trap game, but I am taking the home team, which may be a mistake considering their track records as of late.

Atlanta over Arizona


Dallas at Tennessee

This one needs absolutely no thought. Tennessee is a mess; Dallas has a good team and has had a week of rest. And even with the Owens turmoil, I don’t think that will affect much on the field, especially since he was not expected to play at first. So you do the math. Instead of pouring over the obvious, I have something else on my mind.

Is anyone else excited about a Mohawk comeback? I don’t mean those stupid faux hawks that are sported by metrosexuals everywhere. I mean a full fledged Mr. T Mohawk! A few players are sporting them this season, and I think it’s a fashion statement that needs a comeback. They look cool, and if you can pull one off, you look like a real badass. Plus, it’s a hair style that works no matter what color or race you may be, truly a hair style without discrimination! And women that can pull one off have this dangerous/sexy aura where you know she could eat you alive and spit you out, but you are drawn to her nonetheless. Yowza! What more could you want?

Dallas over Tennessee


Indianapolis at N.Y. Jets

Ho hum, another week, another Colts win. I need to remember, no matter how much he may bug me, or how much he is CONSTANTLY on TV, Peyton Manning is the best quarterback in the league, at least during the regular season. And he has already won in the Meadowlands once this year, twice will not be an issue for him. Yes, the Jets looked good last week, but Peyton will be ready. And if you think Eric Mangini will have an aura about him and be able to use some of that old Patriots voodoo magic and beat Manning, remember that last year Peyton finally kicked that monkey off his back and beat the Pats in Foxboro. Who was New England’s defensive coordinator last year? That is correct, it was Eric Mangini.

Indianapolis over N.Y. Jets


Miami at Houston *

Ok, I know what you are thinking; I really should go dunk my head in a bucket of ice water to clear the cobwebs out. After my mini rant above about Houston, how exactly could I even debate picking them again this week over Miami? Because, that is how little I think of Miami. They barely beat Tennessee at home. They lost to Pittsburgh, which seems more and more embarrassing as time goes by, and then lost, after 11 days rest, to Buffalo at home. Let’s just say my feelings for Daunte and his much heralded comeback are muted, at best. And Houston has to win one sometime. They are not Oakland, after all. But this week?

Miami over Houston


New Orleans at Carolina *

New Orleans played with a lot of emotion on Monday night, and they might be drained after that performance. And any other year, I’d say Carolina ten times in a row. But this is not any other year, New Orleans is out to show they are better, and since Carolina has lost two of three and had trouble with lowly Tampa Bay last week, with their quarterback battling a ruptured spleen no less, my initial decision is clouded. This is a possible trap game, since New Orleans is coming down from an emotional win in the Superdome, and Carolina is beginning to find their offense and defense. This is a tough call for sure. But since Steve Smith is back in the line up….Eh, who cares, I’ll pay for it one way or the other.

Carolina over New Orleans


Minnesota at Buffalo *

Minnesota played Chicago really tough. It looked like they might even win the game all the way until the end. Either Brad Childress is finding a team under all the scandal and distractions, or is squeezing every drop out of them like a used toothpaste tube. Whichever it turns out to be, it is working for the moment. Buffalo has a lot of talent, but are young and it shows. Plus, they have J.P. Losman at the controls, and that always makes me wiggy.

Minnesota over Buffalo


San Diego at Baltimore

I still say Baltimore’s defense is overrated; they are older than you think. Tell me if they have played anyone yet that has a real offense. I know their offense is overrated, when you can only squeeze out 15 points against the Browns and 28 against Oakland. I have plenty of doubts about San Diego as well, especially since Marty Schottenheimer is involved, but not this week.

San Diego over Baltimore


San Francisco at Kansas City *

Frisco is looking super frisky this year. I think they mined a few nuggets in recent drafts. BOOOOOOO! Bad pun! Eh, no one else uses it, thought I would separate myself with one. I do not think they will win a ton of games, but they will turn a few heads for sure. Kansas City had a week off to assess their damages, but no magic will fix their problems. Green is still out, they have no real upgrade in their offensive line and while their defense played tough against Denver, I think that was out of desperation more than anything. Add to that the bad karma surrounding the team with the whole Herm Edwards abandoning the Jets to greener pastures nonsense, and I think this one is pretty clear. Another possible trap game, but I have to go with the hot hand, even if it is just lukewarm. And hey, I haven’t tried for an absurd upset type pick yet, how about now.

San Francisco over Kansas City


Detroit at St. Louis

St. Louis pulled one out of the jaws of defeat last week. Ok, it fell out of Warner’s hands and into their laps, much to my chagrin because up until that point, I was looking pretty smart. I have no idea if this new conservative offense the Rams are running is any good, but their defense is playing better, and will definitely play better than Detroit’s, especially in St. Louis. Although, you can just feel it coming, how much Mike Martz would love to stick it to the Rams in their own stadium. I bet he has been salivating all week for this game. But honestly, what real weapons does he have that can compete with a decent defense? Gut, what do you say? Yep, I agree.

St. Louis over Detroit


Cleveland at Oakland

No thought needed whatsoever. Cleveland is showing some strength on defense, and, well, Oakland is involved.

I need to get to the movies and see Jackass, number 2. The first one was hilarious, swinging rapidly between fall out of the chair laughing and gut churning cringing. I am sure this will be the same way. And as an added side note, is there anything better than those video shows where people hurt themselves? I don’t mean America’s Funniest Home Videos, which is a terrible show. I mean ones like, Totally Outrageous Videos and When Good Times Go Bad. Whenever I find one on cable, I cannot resist. It’s like I am a fly, and I see that bright buzzing blue light and I have to go straight for it. There is nothing better than to watch people with no common sense attempt to do something that anyone in their right mind would look at and think, oh, this will not end well. And it never does end well and usually there ends up being some sort of injury involved. The most oft injured part? Pride and humility. They ALWAYS come away badly wounded! It’s similar to watching Oakland fans in the fourth quarter trying to rally their team to victory.

Cleveland over Oakland


Jacksonville at Washington *

On the surface, a tough call. Jacksonville lost a tough one to the Colts, who they ran all over and had control of through the first half. The Redskins showed some offense for the first time this year in Houston. But my gut tells me Jacksonville. I don’t know why, I know Washington is better than their record, but the only team they have beaten is Houston, and they have lost to good teams. Jacksonville is a good team. Then again, so is Washington, and they started to turn their season around last year after a win in Texas. Ugh, either way I’ll be wrong.

Jacksonville over Washington


New England at Cincinnati *

This is the week New England’s veteran exodus catches up with them. I know, it is a classic trap game. New England is feeling like their backs are against the wall, with a bad loss last week against Denver, and not being overly impressive in their 2 wins. And New England just does not lose two weeks in a row. Couple that with a Cincinnati team that is feeling overconfident after beating Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh. However, they were not overly impressive, and their run game was atrocious, as was their run defense and they know it. New England can still run the ball effectively, and can possibly exploit this. But, Carson Palmer is itching for a big day to show he’s back, and New England’s pass defense is suspect at best. Plus, Cincy’s secondary is aggressive and can take advantage of New England’s questionable receiving corps. Of course, there are still a couple of days before game time, and at least a few of the players could get arrested before then. It certainly is plausible. Seriously, how stupid is Odell Thurman? Woof, the Cincinnati Jail Breakers is a column in itself. I almost feel bad for Cincinnati. They have suffered for years with a crappy team, and now, finally, when it looks as though they have something, half the team behaves as though their former team was the Mean Machine. How long before some fan at a Bengals game calls the team’s new jerk hotline on one of the players? I’ll take the over on Thanksgiving, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it occurs before. Anyway, as I said, this is a possible trap game, since Cincy was not overly impressive last week, and at least for the near future, you should never count out New England, especially if their back is against the wall. Let’s check in with the expert, gut? You got it. But if you are wrong……

Cincinnati over New England


Seattle at Chicago *

This was a hard choice when I first saw it, and then I saw that Shawn Alexander has a broken foot and will be out for at least a few weeks. If Chicago does not have to respect their running game, they can just key on the passing game. If that happens, Hasselbeck will have a very long day, and the Bears can take a big step forward toward some respect as a team to beat in the NFC. I know Alexander was not a huge factor in dismantling the Giants, but he still had to be respected and keyed on when he was on the field. He is the reigning league MVP. It made Hasselbeck’s job of putting the game on his shoulders much easier. One thing that bugs me is Seattle’s new 4 WR set, with four good receivers. The Bears had trouble last year just defending Steve Smith. How are they going to handle four? It leaves me a little uneasy. But, the game is in Chicago, home of da Cubs, polish sausage, and DA BEARS.

Chicago over Seattle


Green Bay at Philadelphia

This could be a good match up, especially if Favre keeps playing like the Favre of old. His assessment of the talent level in Green Bay may be correct, but they are young, and just starting to come together. Philly looks strong again, very strong, actually. They do not look to be letting the loss of Kearse affect them, at least mentally. I know his loss could be a factor at some point this season, but for now they seem to be adapting and overcoming. I cannot see the Eagles letting another one at home get away from them. Not if they hope to move further this season, and keep the Philly faithful from a full scale riot.

Philadelphia over Green Bay


Note: Ok, so I did all the picks on Tuesday. Ran through them fast and with a vengeance. Then I sat on this all week, double checking and confirming what I liked, and agonized and flipped back and forth on about half of them. I marked them with an asterisk for fun; just to see how bad I screwed those up come next Tuesday. So, yeah, I totally over thought all of them. So much for gut picks. At least I’ll know why I got fried this week. Excuse me; I have to go smash my fingers in a door now.