The Crystal Ball The Divisionals

Originally Posted on Quick Thoughts on January 13, 2007.


4 games down, 4 teams headed home, 4 teams moving on to face the remaining 4 teams. Wildcard weekend is officially a memory, and it was a wild one indeed. Well, ok, maybe not completely, but it did happen. Let’s take a brief peek at the action.

Colts defeat Chiefs – KC was woefully overmatched and obviously the strategy of running Larry Johnson constantly had zero effect. The Colts were smart and went right after Johnson, stacking eight in the box and daring Trent Green to beat them with his arm. I said not to trust Green on the road and that game was exactly why not. Here’s my question, with it being painfully obvious that Indianapolis’s defensive strategy was to key on Johnson, why didn’t KC just switch to play action passes and deep bombs against the man on man coverage in the secondary? They were holding down the Colts offense fairly effectively, keeping them to nothing but field goals in the first half. Play action passes could have given them a lead and sent Peyton and the Colts into panic mode. But hey, I guess that’s why I am not an offensive coordinator. Other than that, the most significant things I took from this were, I did not realize Peyton could start throwing picks so early in the playoffs and who knew they could run a balanced attack as opposed to Peyton just slinging it all day. Interesting.

Seahawks defeat Cowboys – No big surprise there. I thought Qwest would give them the edge. It did, but barely. It was just as I said, though, a crappy game. I feel bad for Tony Romo, whose muffed hold cost Dallas the game. Tony, these things happen all the time. And believe me when I say this, all the blame for the loss should not fall on you. If the rest of the team had played better, you would have blown the Seahawks off the field. If the game plan would have been styled to exploit the thread bare Seattle secondary, it would not have come down to a field goal at the end of the game. Ask Terrell how many balls he should have had and could have had. Start there, and work your way through the locker room. Everyone could have done more. The only thing distinguishing you is you are willing to take the heat and the blame. Dallas, if that is not a winner in the true vein of Roger the Dodger, I do not know what is. Embrace this young man, push his confidence back up and support him, so next year he is even better. He may never be Roger or Troy, but he is the best you’ve had in a long time.

Patriots defeat Jets – Not entirely surprised, but a bit disappointed. The Jets finally succumbed to a more talented team. Nice season, though, and good job Mangini. You really turned the team around and had them playing as a team the entire season. They did hang tight with the Pats for three quarters; unfortunately, it is a four quarter game. I thought they might be able to ride the wave just a bit further, but it was not to be. The future does look bright, however, for the boys in green. With only one free agent starter and tons of cap room, this team could get some weapons and has the confidence to turn this year’s wave into next year’s tsunami. New England looked like they were struggling there for a while, and then suddenly, they poured it on. Man how I hate when they do that. Will someone beat New England, please? Good gravy, what kind of blasphemy am I saying? If New England wins, that means we all continue to see Tom Brady, his excellent play and his stunning masculine beauty. And the more we get to see Tom, the more we all win.

Eagles defeat Giants – Did anyone check out the huge backup QB the Giants roll with? I thought Rod Farva had suddenly switched from law enforcement to the NFL. Is there ever a situation in a game when Eli does not look like a confused junior high kid? I didn’t think so either. And when he does something stupid, I seriously expect him to say awww shucks. Even in his post game interview, he looked like a kid dressed up in his dad’s suit. Until he looks like someone in charge, the Giants will never go far. At least his brother, even in all of his playoff losses, looks like a man in charge. The Eagles let the Giants hang around far too long, but nothing is as exciting as a game winning field goal. Could this be a team of destiny? They are showing the signs of such, but I guess we will truly find out this week. This was their sixth straight win, and if they go all the way, they’ll break Pittsburgh’s eight games streak to win it all set last year. I could live with that. Go Eagles.

One thing I must say, though, is I love Jeremy Shockey’s toughness. Usually, he leaves me with the impression of a guy who spends too much time running his mouth as opposed to running his routes. But after watching him make a catch, lose his helmet, and then just stick his head down and drive into several Eagle defenders trying to get another yard or two, that’s the kind of guy you want on your team. The kind that will do anything to push his team just that much further. The fact that he also played the entire game on a ravaged ankle shows how much he wanted to win. I still think he runs his yapper too much, but I do like his game more now.

Coaching Vacancies Update:

Atlanta found their next head coach, tapping the college ranks and hiring Bobby Petrino away from Louisville. Petrino is an offensive minded coach, and the Falcons obviously hope to have him utilize Michael Vick much better than he has been thus far in his career. This is good news for me, since I was worried that they might hire Whisenhunt due to his Atlanta connections. One opening filled. Who will be next?

Minnesota DC Mike Tomlin interviewed with Pittsburgh this week, with Georgia Tech head coach Chan Gailey scheduled for Saturday. Gailey was a former offensive coordinator with Pittsburgh in the mid nineties and had a head coaching stint in Dallas.

Former Green Bay head coach Mike Sherman is getting nibbles of interest from several teams. He is interviewing with the Cardinals and interest in the coach has been expressed by Miami and Pittsburgh. If Pittsburgh does interview Sherman, he will be the sixth person to interview with the team.

Miami met with Whisenhunt last week regarding their coaching spot. No word as to how the meeting went. Whisenhunt also had a second interview with Arizona on Friday, and has been asked to stay another day at the team’s request. It would seem as though the Cardinals are going to put forth an offer to Whisenhunt. It will be interesting to see what he does, since he passed up an offer from Atlanta until he sees how things shake out in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have not yet scheduled second interviews with any candidate, and their once short list of candidates seems to be expanding by the day. What is chafing me about this is not the thoroughness of the search; the Rooney’s have always been thorough and were the last two times they had to hire a coach. The chafing point is that they have two excellent candidates right in house and it seems as though they are daring both to make a move, to make their decision easier. But the more they keep pissing around, the chances expand that they could lose both of them, and where does that leave the team? Short of Chicago DC Ron Rivera, I cannot see them taking any candidate seriously other than Grimm and Whisenhunt, so why the game of charades? Just pick one and roll with it, or at least get them both in for a second interview so they know Pittsburgh’s serious.

Oakland DC Rob Ryan is a candidate to take over the head coaching duties for the Raiders. This actually might be a good idea. One of the only bright spots on the Raiders last year was their defensive play, which did manage to hold quite a few good teams to some low scores. Unfortunately, their offense was always held to even less. Remember, even in their win over Pittsburgh, their offense only managed 98 yards of total offense. Their defense scored 14 of their 20 points in that game, and also held Pittsburgh to 12 points. Not a bad performance against a defending Super Bowl Champion. They could do worse than Ryan. What am I saying, they did do worse just this year.

The Giants have elected to keep Tom Coughlin for another year, extending his contract through the 2007 season. According to the Giants owners, they have full confidence in Coughlin, and know that the team was hamstrung by a rash of injuries throughout the season. Yes, they did have injuries, and were playing in the ultra competitive NFC East. Plus, Coughlin did take them to the playoffs each of the past two years, a feat The Giants last did when Bill Parcells was the head coach. However, they lost each game in the playoffs the last two years, and it was pretty obvious the team was revolting under Coughlin, some more openly than others. Stay tuned folks; I bet this turns into an excellent soap opera next season

Cleveland clears out half of its offensive staff. Crennel is working to shake things up, and it seems the Cleveland brain trust sees the best way to do this is to get some new blood on the coaching staff. We shall see how that works out. I’d hate to see them turn into the Bungles, well, more so than they already have become.

Ok, I am at my wit’s end. The NFL needs desperately to diversify their sponsors. All weekend I again saw that sanity destroying Wendy’s $2.99 commercial and, as everyone who has watched at least one game this season can attest to, the Chevrolet ad with that grating song by John Mellencamp. Each I saw no less than 4500 times. To add to this misery, I’ve seen that jackass Nissan commercial so often, I’m beginning to hate the song Ironman. The only plus in the weekend of NFL advertising is they have started creeping out new commercials as the Super Bowl approaches. I saw a great one with Bruce Campbell dressed as a blue blood and wandering around a rather ornately decorated study. He may even have had a pipe, I cannot remember, I was laughing too hard that it was Bruce Campbell playing corporate shill. About halfway through, I’m laughing and said aloud that I do not care what this is for, it’s great. Turns out, it was for Old Spice, which just made it even funnier. Note, look for the never ending painting in the background. Just a fantastic spot.

Tom Coughlin and Bill Belichick are idiots. First, let us take a long gander at Mr. Coughlin. The team did make the playoffs, but that is because the NFC sucks. The team finished 8-9 even though they are loaded with talent. They went 2-6 in the second half of the season after starting 6-2. Yes, they did have a bunch of debilitating injuries this season, but every team has injuries. The key to success is finding a way to deal with the unexpected. They have underperformed, they have rebelled against Coughlin, and he just does not see this or chooses to ignore it. When two of your stars, Barber and Shockey, call you out, repeatedly, for being out coached, that is not a team that supports its leader. Plus, the fact that he regularly throws players under the bus, especially his young quarterback who already has shaky confidence in the best of situations, rather than put the blame where it belongs, squarely on his own shoulders, just makes him detestable in my book. But this week, after their loss to Philadelphia, he actually topped himself in the post game interview. Throughout the interview he was obviously agitated, probably because he realized he was about to be out of a job. But he actually said that we should not be talking about the negatives, but about the positives. He brought up the first and 30 drive where the Giants ended up converting the set of downs and scoring a touchdown. He actually said, why are we not talking about that? Well, coach, no one is talking about it because while it was a good series, you still lost the damn game. And at the end, no matter how many good plays you make, the most important thing when the clocks hit all zeros is whether or not you have more points than the other team. This day, you did not, and that is the story. Idiot.

As for Belichick, I saw everything I need to know about the man at the post game coaches’ handshake. As he ambled toward Eric Mangini in his stupid cut off hoodie, he came upon a phalanx of photographers. When he got to them, did he say excuse me, or just squeeze his fat ass through to get to Mangini? No, he grabs a photographer and shoves him out of his way, following it with a few choice words for said photographer, who is just doing his job. Now, Belichick has been around, he knows how photographers and videographers are in trying to get THE shot, and how much more intensified their attempts to get said shot become as the playoffs progress. Plus, considering how icy he was with Mangini the two previous times they met, this looked to be something memorable. The question of how would they greet each other after this game was a topic of discussion all week. What did he honestly expect other than pandemonium? I think a common saying applies well here. How a person treats a waiter is an adequate indicator of what kind of person they really are. I think his actions here, applied with the above saying, say a lot about Bill Belichick, and to me they say egomaniacal jackass. And for all those out there who just worship at the alter of Belichick the Genius; remember this is the same coach who regularly got his ass handed to him by Bill Cowher when Belichick the Great coached the Browns. I think too many people forget this, and I love to remind everyone of it. Idiot. I have one other note about the post game greeting. All the talking heads were babbling about how it was nice that the mentor congratulated the protégé after the game. They were saying how they finally made peace and had a proper greeting, with Belichick opening his arms and accepting his professional rival. I have but one question here. Would Belichick have been so friendly and outgoing with Mangini had the Jets won? I don’t think so either.


The NFL has ripped me off big time with something called the NFL Bandwagon. You put in your team, and if they did not make the playoffs, they ask you five questions and assign you, based upon your answers, a team to root for during the playoffs. Now, I figured you did not need some psychological assessment and assignment of a team; with a few ground rules you can pick your own playoff horse. But, in the effort of research, I thought I would go through the quiz and see who would be chosen for me. After putting in Pittsburgh, and the NFL Films guy, which I thought using his voice was a stroke of genius, saying how they’re great, but this wasn’t their year, I started answering the questions. They were fairly simple, like who is your college team, are you a night owl or morning person, do you like to do it yourself or hire help, if you see a penny do you pick it up or let it be. After answering the questions, they processed it and who was my team? The New England Patriots. So, after cleaning the vomit off of my laptop, I went through it again to see if it was a fluke, this time getting different questions, but ones that were along the same vein as the previous quiz. The results? You guessed it, the New England Patriots. Once I stopped bashing my head against the wall, I thought, well, maybe one more time, what the hell. I went through once again and received yet another different set of questions. The results this time? Yeah, it was, the New England Patriots. So, obviously, NFL.com has the same man crush on Tom Brady as John Madden. Since I don’t, and I’m sure I am not alone in that boat, I thought I’d tweak the Playoff Horse rules just a bit. Here they are in their entirety. And whatever you do, avoid NFL Bandwagon. If you are too lazy to pick your own horse, you should not be rooting for anyone anyway and should spend your time making sure your season ticket renewal form for the Black Hole is filled out in the proper color of crayon.

1) Avoid teams from your division – This has too many incestuous ramifications, and could create bad karma for your team the next year. Plus, if they won it all, would you really be able to live with yourself? Avoid division teams at all cost.

2) Avoid traditional rivalry teams – This is paramount, and can create as much bad karma as a division rival, perhaps more. If you are a Raiders fan, you do not root for Denver ever. You would never see a Cowboys fans rooting for Philadelphia either. Plus, if you did that, wouldn’t you just feel sleazy, like you slept with your best friend’s girlfriend?

3) Avoid teams that beat up on your team – Sure, your team had a bad year, but why rub their noses in it by rooting for a team who tortured them. Plus, you could possibly look like a band wagon fan, and you want to avoid that at all costs.

4) Never buy any merchandise of your playoff horse – This is a very short term commitment, no need to invest any money in it. Plus, you could be labeled as a band wagon fan or even bring bad football karma to your team. You never want to split your true loyalties. And, if any of your family or friends who know nothing about football sees this merchandise, it could lead them to believe this is your favorite team and the next thing you know you find Seattle Seahawks Salt and Pepper shakers under your tree next Christmas.

5) Look for teams that did not play yours - This makes it easier to cheer for your playoff horse, since you cannot create bad karma or look like a band wagon fan. Plus, you will not be reminded of when they played your team this season, which could be a bad memory for you.

6) Try to find some connection to your favorite team – Does your playoff horse play in the same state as your team? That works. Are their former players from your team on their roster? Probably, so why not root for those guys, you liked them at one point in their careers. Well, unless that player is T.O. Do you have a friend who is a big fan of a team? Go with his or her team. They would do the same for you, and maybe they have recently, like last year when they cheered on Pittsburgh and congratulated you on Pittsburgh’s Super Bow victoryl. Hee hee.

7) Look for the sleeper – This is a great one, since if you pick the right team, and they go all the way, you look like a genius. And if they lose, well, you have lost nothing. There is always one team lurking and ready to pounce; the only question is if they could go all the way. Maybe they just need some extra cheer.

8) Pick one team from each conference – Always have two, it increases your odds for making it through the playoffs. Plus, if they both happen to make it to the big game, then you look like an uber genius. On the chance this should happen, switch all support to the team representing your conference. Always good for your real team to be in the more powerful, and Super Bowl laden conference. Trust me, the 80’s and 90’s were rough on us AFC folks.

9) You must pick your horses before the playoffs begin – Yes, I know, this only gives you a week to mourn your season’s end and then find someone to root for, even if it’s only half heartedly. But you cannot cheat by peeking at wildcard weekend and seeing who might really have a shot.

10) If your horses lose before the Super Bowl, you are done – Just like if your own team were eliminated from the playoffs, so too go your temporary allegiances. After that, you can only pick winners for each game. Well, if you have a few bucks on the game, then cheer away. But if not, then just watch as an objective party. Now, if you want to root still, my advice is to root against the teams you cannot stand. If you are any true fan, I’m sure there will be more than a few of those around, even when there are only two remaining combatants.

Remember, this is only for the short term and just for a little fun. You are just rooting for a team so you can create a little vested interest in the playoffs without losing your savings. After the team is done, or the playoffs end, so does your support for your playoff horse. Any cheering for them after that means you are either gleaming off of their success and that would compromise your own team, or you are a band wagon fan, and that would really hurt your team and your credibility. You never want to do anything that would compromise your true allegiances. With that in mind, go out there and find your playoff horse. Since the full rules did not come out until this weekend, I am giving a temporary pass on rule 9. Call it a late Christmas present.

While drawing up the full set of rules, it dawned on me that I neglected to list out my playoff horses last week. So, without further delay, here they are. And as you see, I did not violate rule 9.

AFC Horse - The New York Jets. Why? I liked the underdog factor they brought to the playoffs, plus they did not play Pittsburgh last season. Also, I was rooting for Kimo Von Oelhoffen, who left Pittsburgh to make some scratch in the Big Apple. And, I tend to root against the Patriots whenever possible, so the fact that they split the season series with New England and were heading for the rubber match in the playoffs, well it was all too tempting. However, none of that helped and they were overmatched and out played. So now, my first horse is done.

NFC Horse – The Philadelphia Eagles. Why? Well, they are another Pennsylvania team, and I tend to have an affinity toward all professional teams from the Keystone state. I like Andy Reid as a coach despite his occasional clock mismanagement, plus he looks like a boss I once had, which leads to many jokes between me and the girlfriend whenever the Eagles play. Westbrook is a great player and highly underrated, although he is finally getting some due this season. Jeff Garcia has that underdog feel about him and is playing with a chip on his shoulder, I dig that too. People ignored the team after McNabb went down, so they have kind of slid under the radar. Plus, I have several friends who are HUGE Eagles fans. They are to the Birds as I am to the Steelers, that’s how huge. I thought I’d give them a little extra backing this post season, since they threw their backing my way last year. And considering who they are playing come Sunday, they will need all the support they can get. Update on how the Eagles do next week.

As I work to hone my prediction skills, I am keeping track of my playoff picks and the first week was gang busters. I thought I would also add it in to my overall total, to see what I come up with over a total of 267 games played, not counting pre season.

Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs to Date: 3-1
Season to Date: 153-107

Not too shabby indeed. Now, who do we have on the slate for this weekend, the all important divisional round? Just a few important games, that’s all, nothing major. One factoid I keep hearing regarding the divisional round of the playoffs that I find pertinent is that the home team wins very often in this round. Since the playoff expansion to 12 teams, home teams have won 47 out of 60 games in the divisional playoff round. That is a high percentage to say the least. Extra rest and a raucous home crowd play big parts in this success, on top of the fact that the home teams in this round were distinctively better than the visiting team during the season. Not in every case, but definitely in most cases. Plus, 5 times since the playoff expansion, the home team has swept all four games in the same weekend. Very impressive. The overall percentage breaks down to about 3 out of four games will be won by the home team. So, looking at the slate of games, the big question is which three home teams will prevail? I am not one to follow numbers and statistics too closely, although I probably should for situations just like this. So, keeping in mind these home team statistics, let’s make some picks.

Saturday

Indianapolis at Baltimore

The football weekend starts in the land of crab cakes. Baltimore’s former team versus their current team in a showdown for AFC supremacy and a birth in the title game, oh the ramifications of it all! This game could go so many different ways, it is not funny. If the Ravens get in Peyton’s face early and often, it could be over quick. If Peyton catches fire early, that forces Baltimore to play catch up, and even with an aging Air McNair behind center, they are not really built to play from behind. If the Ravens get down early, the onus falls to the defense to win, and will they be able to do such a thing if they get down by a few scores? The plus side is that the Ravens have had a little bit of rest while the Colts had a physical game last week against the Chiefs. I hate to say it, but I’ll go with the rested team. Get your Peyton can win the big one comments warmed up, its time for another round starting Saturday evening.

Baltimore over Indianapolis


Philadelphia at New Orleans

Who does not love the feel good story of New Orleans? Everyone does. How the team has lifted the city on their backs, and all the work the players do for the people of the area and all they give back to the community in time, money and services. And then on top of that, the team went out and put together a 10-6 season, capturing the second seed in the playoffs and giving the city, state and region something to really cheer about. It almost seems too good to be true and even I would just love to see them succeed, even though they are playing the Eagles. How cold do you have to be to not want to get behind a team like this? And in this game, they have a good chance. The Eagles secondary is hurting, especially with Lito Sheppard out with a dislocated elbow. I cannot even imagine how much that had to hurt. I could easily see Drew Brees strafing the Eagles secondary all day long. But I gotta back my horses, and the Birds are my horse. Not every fairy tale can have a happy ending. But if the Saints march over the Eagles, I might have to break rule 10, I mean it is the Saints, and they do wear black and gold.

Philadelphia over New Orleans


Sunday


Seattle at Chicago

Ok, let’s just say it, the Seahawks got really lucky last week. They look nothing like the team that lorded over the NFC last season. Hasselbeck looks like the version of himself that made the ridiculous proclamation in the overtime game in Green Bay a few years back, and Shawn Alexander is looking rather pedestrian. Must be that Madden curse coming back to haunt them. Plus, I bet if I lived in Seattle, I’d have a good chance at being a nickel back for the Hawks right now. But, they are not the only team in the playoffs with issues. Da Bears have more than a few questions at QB with Grossman’s inept performance in the season finale. His numbers and effectiveness are way off and dropped considerably over the second half of the season, reaching an apex of futility against Green Bay. Was this a harbinger of doom, or just a minor slump? It is unknown, and we really will not know until after this game, or perhaps even next week. Yes, despite all of Grossman’s issues, Da Bears are still too much for a ravaged Seahawks secondary and a semi-effective offense.

Chicago over Seattle


New England at San Diego

The football weekend will wrap up in sunny San Diego as the Chargers host the Patriots for the right to go to the AFC Championship game. There is a lot of talk regarding New England and their return to supremacy in this game, with everyone touting the Belichick/Brady playoff record of 11-1, Marty Shottenheimer’s record of 5-12 and the fact that Phillip Rivers has never played a playoff game. All valid points, for sure. A first playoff game can be very stressful for a young quarterback. I remember Roethlisberger’s, and while the team won the game, he looked terrible. But here are a few other tidbits that seem to be overlooked as we approach this showdown. Shottenheimer is 7-2 in his career against Belichick. The Chargers had a week off and are playing at home while New England had to endure a slugfest against the Jets. The Chargers have one of the most ferocious 3-4 defenses in the league, much tougher than most of the opponents the Patriots have faced this year. The Patriots had to work extra hard to keep ahead of those same Jets last week, despite the fact that the Jets have a poor running game. The Chargers, on the other hand, have perhaps the best running game in the league, and arguably the best running back. Perhaps these few tidbits could play a factor into the outcome of the game. I think it will enormously, so let’s all sing it together. San Di-e-go…Sup-er Cha-rgers!

San Diego over New England